Moody's Credit Ratings Statement on RSA Sovereign Risk
- Maano Capital
- Dec 6, 2025
- 2 min read
Updated: Dec 16, 2025
Moody’s Maintains South Africa’s Ba2 Credit Rating with Stable Outlook – 5 Dec 2025 Review
Moody’s Ratings completed its periodic review of South Africa’s credit ratings, reaffirming the country’s Ba2 long-term issuer rating with a stable outlook. Below is a summary of their report.

Key Credit Rating Takeaways
Economic Momentum in 2025
South Africa experienced a rebound in growth, supported by stabilized electricity supply and improved rail and port operations. This boosted output in key sectors such as platinum, gold, chemicals, and automotive manufacturing.
Challenges Remain
Longstanding structural issues—aging infrastructure, high unemployment, and deep inequality—continue to weigh on the country's growth potential.
Institutional Strength vs. Fiscal Strain
While South Africa benefits from strong institutions like the central bank and judiciary, fiscal pressures remain a concern. Government debt (which is mostly domestic) is projected to rise to 87% of GDP in FY2025, partly due to state support for struggling entities like Transnet.
Positive Inflation and Fiscal Changes
The South African Reserve Bank is shifting its inflation focus to the lower end of its target range (3%), aiming to reduce borrowing costs and support fiscal consolidation. The Treasury forecasts a 4.5% deficit for FY2025, reflecting ongoing fiscal discipline.
ESG Considerations
Moody’s notes that ESG risks, particularly social inequalities and limited financial flexibility, have a meaningful negative impact on the country’s credit profile.
Bottom Line: Credit Rating Outlook
South Africa’s economy is showing early signs of improvement, but progress will depend on policy execution, structural reform, and the ability to maintain fiscal discipline under pressure. There is potential for a rating upgrade if there are continued and sustained improvements in SOE reform and higher than expected economic growth.
Maano Capital's View
Continued reforms in the energy and logistics sectors, along with tangible progress on the funding and implementation of strategic infrastructure programs, will be critical drivers of economic recovery and, ultimately, an improved credit outlook for South Africa.


